Joe Manchin’s determination to not search re-election makes Democrats’ quest to keep up their Senate majority tougher.
Manchin was considered one of three Democratic senators representing crimson states who will face voters subsequent yr, and the celebration is just not seen as having a powerful different candidate in West Virginia, a closely Republican state.
Within the 2020 election, West Virginia voted greater than 68% for Donald Trump, his second-largest margin of victory after Wyoming. Following Manchin’s announcement on Thursday, the Prepare dinner Political Report modified its score for the 2024 race to “robust Republican” — the identical score it gave to Senate races in different deep crimson states like Nebraska, Tennessee and Wyoming.
The main focus now turns to Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, each of whom have mentioned they are going to run once more however face powerful roads to victory. Brown, whose victory subsequent yr is important if his celebration needs any likelihood of remaining within the Senate majority, reacted nearly instantly to Manchin’s announcement, tweeting: “It is by no means been clearer that we have to win in Ohio.” .
There’s additionally the query of whether or not Kyrsten Sinema, an impartial who caucuses with Democrats, will run once more within the purple state of Arizona, or whether or not she might be changed by a Democrat. The GOP can also launch assaults in opposition to incumbent Democratic senators within the swing states of Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and attempt to win the open Senate seat in Michigan.
Even when Democrats fail in West Virginia however win all the opposite races, they might nonetheless lose their Senate majority. This best-case state of affairs would give the celebration simply 50 seats, one in need of a majority, and management of the chamber would rely on whether or not Joe Biden wins re-election, or is changed by a Republican.